Valentine Day week has traditionally and statistically been a bearish one. Could it be different this time? The market has gone higher on seemingly good news, especially on the job market front, earnings and buyout/takeovers. However the keen eye and traders will start looking into the numbers. Take for example the unemployment numbers; the initial claims and the continuing claims. They look to be better and give everyone a sense of unfounded security that the economy is doing better. One needs only to look at the non farm employment payroll to realize that there is no job creation to speak about.

Here is the first Paragraph of the last non farm payroll report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.0 percent in
January, while nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+36,000),
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in
manufacturing and in retail trade but was down in construction and in
transportation and warehousing. Employment in most other major
industries changed little over the month.

Nothing to celebrate much, 36K jobs is very insignificant compared to the number of folks that do not qualify anymore for benefits and are therefore no longer accounted for as part of the statistical base

Here is the full link if you are interested in a bit more reading.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I have not seen Rickster's commentary but I am sure he will cover this as well. So why did I speak about it? Well I believe that despite the morosity of the anticipated future the markets find comfort in such news and keeps going higher. News driven market are often non rational and coumpound it with earning season and an onslaught of acquisition stories ( Who's your friend and was tell ing you all about acquisition activity in his first commentary of the year?) and you have a market which follows neither technicals or fundamentals.

With no further adue, here is my video technical analysis:

Dim lights

Summary:

While we are approaching a statistically bearish couple of weeks, starting with this week option expirations, and a lot of technical analysts, especially the Elliott Waves practionners, are looking for a MAJOR pull back.

The key here is the amplitude and the timing of the pull back. My commentary explained my position on the subject. I think rushing into short positions even on long term portfolios is a mistake and too early. I will likely look at trading at an opportunitic level and will be watchfull of the bulls setting bear traps.

Do not get me wrong, some sort of retracement is coming but it might be a couple of weeks to a couple of months from now.

have a great Trading week.

Here are the static charts: