I first want to thank all our members for allowing me the past week off to take care of my wife and I also want to thank you for your well wishes and prayers.

While I did not do a commentary last week, it is very likely it would have looked a lot like the preceeding week. Not much had changed. Now this week the market in its infinite wisdom has granted the wish of a right shoulders to all traders watching the inverted head and shoulders and hoping for a longer bull rally. While we made that right shoulder, or what appear to be one, it has failed to confirm the upside, remaining stubbornly under 1320.

The Elliott Wave count is far from being a clear cut once again and many scenario are possible. The earnings season will continue in full swing this coming week and we have a few bell weather stocks to watch accross all sectors, which added to the incertitude in north africa and the middle east affecting energy and oil price, will likely further confuse the trading community about direction.

The commentary video below offers a couple of scenario :

Dim lights

While I finished rendering the video file, I thought of an additional scenario, and wanted to share it as well.  Looking at the chart below and in the context of 1244 being only the end point for wave 3:5 while 1249 marked our wave 4:5, and the extended nature of the wave 3:5 at 262% of the wave 1:5; there is also the possiblity that the Wave 5:5 terminates at or near the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders and traps all traders gone long of the return to the neckline. This would be almost a perfect textbook top scenario for the bears waiting to take advantage most expected and needed retracement. With QE 2 ending , oil going higher, this would be a perfect way to end the month of april before selling in May and going away.